Pitso Mosimane’s return as Bafana Bafana coach is about to face its first major test.
South Africa begin their AFCON 2027 qualifying campaign against Guinea on Wednesday, 23 September, before travelling to face Eritrea four days later.
On paper, Bafana are the highest-ranked side in Group D. But qualifying will be anything but straightforward, with Guinea expected to provide the biggest challenge and Kenya adding an unusual twist to the group.
With only one team able to join Kenya in advancing from Group D, every dropped point could prove costly.
WHY GROUP D COULD BE A TRAP FOR BAFANA
AFCON 2027 will be hosted by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, meaning Kenya already has a guaranteed place at the tournament as one of the co-hosts.
That has significant consequences for Group D.
South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea are effectively battling for the remaining qualifying place. Kenya, meanwhile, can play without the pressure of needing to qualify.
For Bafana, that leaves very little room for error.
The campaign begins with Guinea on 23 September, although the venue has yet to be confirmed. South Africa then travel to Eritrea on 27 September.
Matchdays 3 and 4 are scheduled for 9–17 November, with the final two rounds taking place between 22 and 30 March 2027.
GUINEA: THE BIGGEST THREAT
Guinea looks like the most serious obstacle standing between Bafana and AFCON 2027.
The Syli National missed the 2025 tournament in Morocco, but they still possess plenty of individual quality.
Borussia Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy is the headline name, while experienced left-back Issiaga Sylla brings significant international experience as Guinea’s most-capped player.
Coach Paulo Duarte also has access to a number of European-based players.
The FIFA rankings currently favour South Africa, with Bafana sitting 54th compared with Guinea in 81st. But rankings alone will not settle the contest.
For Mosimane, starting the campaign with a positive result against Guinea could be crucial, particularly after South Africa endured a difficult World Cup qualifying campaign before eventually securing their place at the 2026 tournament.
ERITREA: THE MATCH BAFANA WILL EXPECT TO WIN
Eritrea are the lowest-ranked team in the group by a considerable margin.
The Red Sea Camels sit 184th in the FIFA rankings and have never qualified for either the AFCON or FIFA World Cup.
Their competitive record and off-field challenges make them the apparent underdogs in Group D.
However, Bafana cannot afford complacency.
South Africa’s objective against Eritrea will be straightforward: collect maximum points and avoid turning a theoretically favourable fixture into a problem.
For a team facing such a tight qualifying group, dropping points against Eritrea could have serious consequences.
KENYA: THE WILDCARD
Kenya presents a completely different challenge.
The Harambee Stars are already guaranteed a place at AFCON 2027 as co-hosts, meaning their results in this qualifying group will not determine whether they reach the tournament.
That could make them unpredictable.
Adding another layer to the fixture is the presence of Benni McCarthy as Kenya’s coach. The former Bafana striker will have an obvious familiarity with South African football and could relish the opportunity to test himself against his former national team.
Kenya are also expected to have experienced striker Michael Olunga available again, adding another attacking threat.
For Mosimane, the Kenya matches could therefore be among the most intriguing fixtures of the campaign.
SO, HOW GOOD ARE BAFANA’S CHANCES?
On paper, South Africa have plenty going for them.
They are the highest-ranked team in the group, have recently competed at the World Cup and now have one of the continent’s most experienced coaches back in charge.
But the qualification format leaves little margin for error.
Guinea is the immediate test. Eritrea represents a game Bafana should win. Kenya is the unpredictable wildcard.
If Mosimane can get his side off to a strong start and avoid unnecessary dropped points, Bafana should be well placed to claim the qualifying spot.
But stumble early, and the pressure could rise quickly.
Will Pitso Mosimane lead Bafana Bafana to AFCON 2027, or could Group D spring a major surprise?
