Despite being the dominant team in the Premier Soccer League (PSL) this season with only three losses in 23 matches, Orlando Pirates face a high risk of an upset against Marumo Gallants in the Carling Knockout final. The Buccaneers are favorites, having already secured the MTN8 trophy, but in cup finals, form often counts for little.
Here are the three primary reasons why Orlando Pirates might fail to secure the trophy this Saturday evening:
1. The Carling Knockout “Curse” and Pressure of “Last Dance“
The Buccaneers have historically struggled in the Carling Knockout, having lost three finals since they last won the trophy in 2011.
- Historic Struggle: The club has a poor recent record in this specific final.
- The Mbokazi Factor: The match is being hyped as Mbokazi’s final appearance for the club (“last dance”), which could put excessive and counterproductive pressure on the team. This echoes the previous season when Jose Riveiro’s supposed “last dance” ended in a cup defeat to Kaizer Chiefs in the Nedbank Cup final.
2. Poor Penalty Shootout Record
Should the match remain tied after extra time, Orlando Pirates’ history suggests they are unlikely to triumph in a penalty shootout.
- Recent Defeats: The team has only managed to win two of their last five cup finals that were decided by penalties.
- CAF Elimination: Their weakness in shootouts was recently highlighted by their elimination from the CAF Champions League preliminary stages via penalties.
3. AFCON Distraction and Injury Avoidance
The upcoming Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) tournament could be a significant distraction and limiting factor for several key Pirates players.
- Nine AFCON Squad Members: A substantial nine Pirates players were named in Bafana Bafana’s final 23-man AFCON squad.
- Risk Aversion: These starting players may consciously or subconsciously hold back to avoid injury just days before representing the national team, giving Marumo Gallants an advantage.
- Motivation Dip: Since the team already has the MTN8 trophy in the cabinet, some players might lack the full, fierce commitment necessary for a second cup final, especially with AFCON looming.
