The Sharks are still alive in the Currie Cup — but their route to the semi-finals is extremely narrow.
With the league phase reaching its final weekend, the Durban side sit seventh on the log, three points behind fourth-placed Boland Cavaliers.
That means the Sharks cannot afford anything less than a victory when they host the Bulls at Hollywoodbets Kings Park on Friday night.
Even then, winning may not be enough.
The Sharks need a combination of results elsewhere to fall in their favour if they are to sneak into the top four.
Currie Cup log heading into the final round
The Griquas have already secured their semi-final place after winning five of their six matches and collecting 26 points.
The Cheetahs are also on 26 points but sit second because of the points-difference tiebreaker.
The Pumas occupy third position on 17 points, while Boland are fourth, level on points with the Stormers XXIII but ahead on points difference.
The Lions are sixth on 15 points, while the Sharks are seventh on 13.
The Blue Bulls are the only side with no mathematical chance of reaching the semi-finals after losing all six of their matches.
Final-round fixtures
The decisive weekend gets underway on Friday, with two important fixtures:
- Lions vs Stormers XXIII — Ellis Park, 17:05
- Sharks vs Blue Bulls — Hollywoodbets Kings Park, 19:15
On Saturday:
- Pumas vs Cheetahs — Mbombela Stadium, 14:00
And on Sunday:
- Boland Cavaliers vs Griquas — Boland Stadium, 15:00
What do the Sharks need?
Sharks win with a bonus point
This is the Sharks’ best possible scenario.
A victory while scoring four or more tries would give them 18 points.
They would move ahead of the Pumas and Boland Cavaliers, but they would still need help elsewhere.
For the Sharks to finish fourth, they need:
- Stormers XXIII to lose to the Lions, or the teams to draw.
- Pumas to lose to the Cheetahs without earning a bonus point.
- Griquas to beat Boland.
If those results fall into place, the Sharks could complete a remarkable late surge into the semi-finals.
Sharks win without a bonus point
A win without the bonus point would take the Sharks to 17 points.
That would move them ahead of Boland, but their fate would still depend heavily on the Lions-Stormers result.
If the Stormers pick up even one log point against the Lions, the Sharks would be eliminated.
A draw at Ellis Park would also end the Sharks’ hopes.
A draw or defeat
There is no complicated permutation here.
The Sharks must win.
A draw or defeat against the Bulls would leave them outside the top four and bring their Currie Cup campaign to an end.
Can the Sharks pull off the great escape?
The Sharks have left themselves with very little room for error.
They need to beat the Bulls, preferably with a bonus point, and then watch the results from Ellis Park, Mbombela and Boland Stadium closely.
It is a long shot — but the door to the Currie Cup semi-finals is not completely closed.
Can the Sharks produce the result they need and sneak into the top four?
